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Author
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Topic: Son of riddles
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fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-03-2001 00:54
   
Sorry, too many riddles per thread.You're on a gameshow, and shown three doors. Two hide goats, and there's a car behind the third. You choose one of the doors, but then Monty Hall opens one of the unchosen doors (revealing a goat) and gives you the option of switching to the other unchosen door or staying with your choice. Assuming that you prefer cars to goats, should you switch, or stay with your choice? PS If you've heard this, pipe down and give those who haven't a chance to answer please. fen IP: Logged |
Jimbo
1 dr3w j00 4 p1ggy!
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posted 04-03-2001 01:06
Dammit, I seem to remember there being some sort of trick to this, but fuck if I can make it make sense.As far as I can tell, you now have the option of choosing one of two doors, one of which hides a goat and the other of which hides a car. Barring excursions into gameshow host psychology, it seems like a total crapshoot to me - your odds are 50/50 whether you switch to the other door or stick with the one you've got (but haven't opened yet). We ARE barring excursions into gameshow host psychology, aren't we...? IP: Logged |
fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-03-2001 03:12
Hmm, I never specifically banned that, but..
Yes. We are.But it isn't 50/50. There was information introduced to distinguish between the remaining doors, you just have to figure out what it was. fen IP: Logged |
Jimbo
1 dr3w j00 4 p1ggy!
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posted 04-03-2001 10:36
Ah.I grok, but I'm also disqualified - I cheated by coding my own Monte Hall app and figuring out why after viewing the results of a million iterations. But, Fen, you missed a necessary stipulation - if Monte revealed a goat by accident, my 50/50 solution is correct. The solution you're looking for actually only applies if you stipulate knowledge on Monte's part of what's behind which door. Unless, of course, you're talking about a million iterations in which Monte somehow "accidentally" revealed a goat every single time with no forehand knowledge, which would of course be statistically indistinguishable from him actually knowing. Also, an incredibly unlikely fluke! So for the purposes of discussing a single iteration, you MUST stipulate that Monte knows ahead of time what's behind each door. If you're going to call the 50/50 answer "wrong", you need to state the problem as following: Monte Hall shows you doors to three rooms and informs you that two rooms contain goats and the third contains a sports car. He asks you to pick a door, and you do - but before he opens it for you, he fucks with your head by opening one of the doors you DIDN'T pick to reveal a goat, and asking you if you want to stick with your original choice, or switch to the other unopened door. Monte DOES know what's behind each door, and he will never show you the sports car. If you want to win the car, should you stick with your original choice, or switch? [This message has been edited by Jimbo (edited 04-03-2001).] IP: Logged |
Demon-of-Elru
TFC Bitch
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posted 04-03-2001 13:48
Fen- you picked Door #1, and got the goat. #2 has the other goat, "and there's a car behind the third." So switch your choice to Door #3Am I right? IP: Logged |
fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-03-2001 19:53
Whoa, Jim, take it easy. This isn't the many worlds theory of physics here; I said he opens one of the unchosen doors to reveal a goat, not "he opens one of the doors, and, finding a goat behind it..." It wouldn't make much sense if he opened a door to reveal the car and then offered you a switch to the last door.I didn't specifically emphasize that he knows where the car is, because that is the piece of information that he adds to the system.. understanding that is the key to answering the puzzle. Demon- yes, but if you picked the car to begin with, then switching be bad. But of course you are twice as likely to have picked a goat to begin with. -fen IP: Logged |
Jimbo
1 dr3w j00 4 p1ggy!
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posted 04-03-2001 21:27
Fen - yes, but if he didn't actually know where the car was, he only improved your odds to 50/50. If he DID know perfectly well what he was doing, however, he improved them to the answer you're looking for - I can demonstrate empirically, if necessary. Yes I can.  IP: Logged |
tsunamitsu
PenIsite
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posted 04-03-2001 22:23
Dude, he's Monty Hall... of course he knows where the goats are.IP: Logged |
weis
bonzi buddy
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posted 04-04-2001 06:46
Fen, you answered this one too quickly, or gave too many hints. You shoulda let this riddle fester for awhile, since it's already used up so much space in the newsgroups and Marilyn Vos Savant's column. Or should we end this thread and start one on the GRY riddle?------------------
With proper thrust, pigs fly just fine.
--RFC 1925 IP: Logged |
fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-04-2001 20:20
Whoa, weis in the forum? I know you'll never read this reply, but--I didn't answer it, Jimbo did, correctly.
But if you're up for GRY grief, you should really check out
http://www.word-detective.com
-- one of my favorite sites, for the real word. Jimbo-- you're right, if he didn't know where the car was, he wouldn't help your odds-- I just meant it to be taken for granted that he wouldn't open a door if he didn't know which one to open. Sorry, I now know what its like to be let down by a riddle (see answer a riddle, win a prize), so I feel your pain. -fen IP: Logged |
weis
bonzi buddy
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posted 04-04-2001 23:43
Dammit, Fen, I do read the message board... Just occasionally, and usually late at night. But for the sake of argument, it occurs to me that the riddle in this thread should also specify that the gameshow host always shows the contestant a goat and asks if he'd like to switch. If the host is in the habit of not offering the chance to switch *unless* the contestant chooses the car on the first guess, then obviously switching is a bad idea.------------------
With proper thrust, pigs fly just fine.
--RFC 1925 IP: Logged |
fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-05-2001 20:37
It is a given of the riddle that if the whole process occurs many times, it will carry out in the same sort of way. Anyway, it's a riddle about probability, not psychiatry.Did you look at word detective? fen IP: Logged |
MrSelfdestruct
Member with a member
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posted 04-05-2001 21:55
What do ya get when you cross a Shitzu and a Bulldog?IP: Logged |
fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-06-2001 01:57
bullshit?IP: Logged |
MrSelfdestruct
Member with a member
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posted 04-06-2001 11:59
You are right, and your prize:A life time supply of those lovely, adorable bullshits. Love em, hug em, sleep with em, and most importantly of all, fertilized your yard with em. They have hundreds of uses!!! IP: Logged |
weis
bonzi buddy
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posted 04-06-2001 20:01
Bah, fen, it's not really a riddle at all, it's more of a story problem about probability. And I don't think that it playing out the same way is inferred, and there's nothing wrong with bluntly stating something that should be inferred anyway. And yes, you sanctimonious bastard, I have seen the word detective's site many times, and am already familiar with the solution to the GRY problem, which is why I mentioned it as a perennially intractable riddle that produces megabytes of pointless message board traffic. Sheesh.------------------
With proper thrust, pigs fly just fine.
--RFC 1925 IP: Logged |
fenomas
argument nazi
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posted 04-08-2001 19:13
Yeah? SEZ WHO?IP: Logged |
Clme
cake fiend
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posted 04-08-2001 19:17
Er...wait... I'm lost again.What was the answer? IP: Logged | |
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